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Scenario Planning Page

Model “what‑if” scenarios to understand how operational changes could influence future emissions based on past performance and predicted future changes. Choose a baseline year, a forecast year, and the emission type you want to assess. The page currently includes two modules:

Module A — Port Traffic (base vs forecast)

Module A

Use reference‑year averages (time in port and emissions by vessel type) to forecast how business growth or operational improvements may change emissions. Adjust:

  • ‘Vessel calls / tugboat jobs’: Adjust absolute numbers of traffic volumes by vessel type (e.g. increasing forecast Dredger calls from 1,000 to an expected 1,500 in the forecast year).
  • ‘Average time in port ’: Adjust the assumed average time (in days) each vessel type spends in port in the forecast year (e.g. increasing the average time in port for Dredgers)
  • ‘Average Emissions’ – this metric shows an output on what these changes would produce in the forecast year

Outputs (on the right-hand side) show ‘Total Port Calls’ and ‘Total Emissions (tonnes)’ with % changes, for the forecast year in comparison to the base.

Module B — Shore Power (base vs forecast)

Module B

Identify genuine alongside emissions hotspots (i.e. berths or terminals with disproportionately high emissions intensity, not just high vessel traffic).

Test the potential impact of onshore power by applying an assumed forecast shore‑power uptake rate (%) at selected berths or terminals whilst holding vessel calls and times at berth constant. Manipulate the type of emission, the base and forecast year.

For each location, compare yearly base (actual) vs forecast results, showing:

  • Actual vs forecast ‘Emissions Alongside’ (tonnes)
  • ‘Total Alongside Emissions’ in tonnes (%) in base year
  • Percentage change of emissions from base vs forecast – “% Shore Power Usage’
  • Output (table graph shown on the right) – “Total Emissions Alongside” in absolute tonnes and percentage change in the forecast year.

Together, these insights build a straightforward evidence base for onshore power as a practical pathway to reducing alongside emissions for ports investing in this decarbonisation pathway.