Overview of the DOC Subscore Forecast Report
The DOC Subscore Forecast Report shows the expected changes to a company's DOC Subscore over the next 12 months.
The report relies on historical data and assumes no future incidents or PSC inspections from the report created date. Additionally, the report assumes that vessels in service under the DOC remain unchanged from the date of the report and for the 12-month forecast.
Any incidents, PSC inspections, or changes to vessels in service under the DOC that occur after the date of the report will result in adjustments to the DOC Subscore Forecast.
The report comprises three sections
1. Header
2. 12-month forecast timeline
Where more than one DOC Subscore change occurs in a single month, only the most recent change will appear on the timeline.
3. 12-month forecast event log
Explanation of the Event Log Forecast columns
Future Date: A date on which a change is expected to occur that has the potential to impact the DOC Subscore.
Event Type: Refers to the specific type of event, categorized as PSC (PSC deficiencies), Detention (PSC Detention), Incident, or Average Fleet Size Change.
Average Fleet Size Change: a metric that takes into account the average fleet size of the DOC to ensure a fair influence on the model's DOC Subscore calculation regardless of whether a DOC has a small or large fleet size. Helping to avoid an immediate drop or jump in DOC Subscores for small fleets.
Each of the 'Time Windows' (often referred to as decay periods) has an average fleet size calculated for it which affects the overall DOC Subscore calculation. Two examples of an average fleet size calculation are shown below:
If in a 6-12 month window (180 days) a DOC has 1 vessel, the vessel stayed for 90 days. Then, the average fleet size would be (90 / 180) = 0.5 vessels.
If in a 6-12 month window (180 days) a DOC has 3 vessels, vessel 1 stayed for 60 days, vessel 2 stayed for 90 days & vessel 3 stayed for 180 days. Then, the average fleet size would be (60 / 180) + (90 / 180) + (180 / 180) = 0.33 + 0.5 + 1 = 1.83 vessels.
We can predict average fleet size changes because we assume that vessels in service under the DOC remain unchanged from the date of the report and for the 12-month forecast eg. if, at the time the DOC Subscore Forecast report was generated, the fleet size was 15 vessels, we assume that the fleet size will remain unchanged at 15 vessels for the next 12 months.
Vessel Name / IMO: Identifies the vessel to which the future event is attributed.
Time Window Change: Signifies the transition of the event from one time window to another, indicating that the event is becoming older. As an event becomes less recent, its impact on the DOC Subscore is diminished. The following time windows are used:
6-12 months to 12-24 months
12-24 months to 24-36 months
36-48 months to 48-60 months
48-60 months to over 60 months
DOC Subscore: This column provides a forecasted DOC Subscore, indicating whether the DOC Subscore is forecast to change or remain the same.
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